Politico asked a wide range of experts to sketch out what they think would be the best case and the worst case scenarios for a Donald Trump presidency. The answers sometimes tell us more about the experts than about the possibilities of a Trump administration. But still, it was an interesting exercise.
Read the story linked after the jump. Then I’d like to hear from you. What do you think would be best case and worst case scenarios for a Trump administration? That is, what good things could happen, if everything goes well? And what could go wrong?
From Donald Trump: The Black Swan President – POLITICO Magazine:
On Tuesday, when Donald Trump defied the polls, the Clinton machine and much of his own party establishment to become president-elect of the United States, he also became the closest thing to a black swan event we’ve ever seen in American politics: Statistically unlikely, rationalized only in hindsight—and carrying an impact that could be off the known charts.
On one hand, Trump is a pragmatic businessman with a very flexible ideology and a desire to be seen in a positive light; on the other, he’s a ruthless and often improvisational dealmaker with no allegiance to the norms and institutions that set the boundaries for traditional political power. And in 10 weeks he’ll be commander-in-chief.
What could happen? Here’s where we’re hoping the experts can come in. As the country tries to wrap its head around the election result that surprised (almost) everyone, Politico Magazine asked top national security gurus, economists, immigration and energy experts, and a few historians to game out a Trump presidency. Below, they sketch out their worst-case and best-case scenarios—and then, most important, what it would take to achieve the latter.
