These surveys suggest how—and why—evangelicals will split more than usual in 2016 election.
Last week, Donald Trump said that if evangelicals vote, he would win the 2016 presidential election. But while he commands a clear lead over Hillary Clinton for their support, surveys also show that American evangelicals are much more divided this year compared to previous elections.
With the election just days away, here are CT’s picks for the recent survey findings that most caught our eye on not only how evangelicals are voting in 2016, but why.
1) How Evangelicals (By Belief) Plan to Vote
Most surveys allow evangelicals to self-identify, which produces consistent majorities for Trump. But surveys that study evangelicals based on their beliefs and actions are much more mixed:
45% of Americans with evangelical beliefs plan to vote for Trump
31% plan to vote for Clinton
23% plan to vote for a third-party candidate, or haven’t decided
[Source: LifeWay Research #1 (links at bottom of page)]
45% of born-again Americans plan to vote for Trump
37% plan to vote for Clinton
15% plan to vote for a third-party candidate, or not vote at all
48% of born-again Americans who worship weekly plan to vote for Trump
34% plan to vote for Clinton
14% plan to vote for a third-party candidate, or not vote at all
[Reuters #2]
4 in 10 evangelicals are reluctant to vote for either Trump or Clinton
[Barna Group #3]
2) How Evangelicals (By Race/Ethnicity) Plan to Vote
65% of white Americans with evangelical beliefs plan to vote for Trump
10% plan to vote for Clinton
62% of African/Hispanic/Asian Americans with evangelical beliefs plan to vote for Clinton
15% plan to vote for Trump
[LifeWay Research #1]
47% of Hispanic evangelicals support Clinton
34% support Trump
[Pew Research Center #4]
3) How Evangelical Pastors Plan to Vote
44% of evangelical …
