Last Summer, liberal pundits were looking forward to “the end of the Republican party.” That Republicans were doomed, due to the inexplicable nomination of Donald Trump and his inevitable defeat, was the expectation even of many Republicans up until election day.
But the day after the election, everything had reversed. The Republicans have the presidency, the House, the Senate, and a Supreme Court pick. Also 33 governors (picking up three yesterday) and 67 state legislatures.
Now it’s the Democrats that are “in crisis.”
Now I do think both parties have some soul-searching to do. Some thoughts after the jump.
From Ed Rogers, The GOP is stronger than ever – The Washington Post:
The conventional wisdom was that the 2016 election could have been the end of the Republican Party as we knew it.
Well, it’s time for a reality check recap:
- Donald Trump won the White House.
- Republicans currently have 238 seats in the House, losing a net of only six races.
- Republicans retained the majority in the Senate, so far losing only a net of one seat.
- Republicans now hold 33 governorships, with a gain of three seats Tuesday.
- Republicans control at least 67 state legislative chambers.
- President Trump will have one Supreme Court vacancy to fill immediately and could potentially add at least two more justices before his first term is finished.
But the Republicans do have a big problem: Trump does not follow the traditional Republican ideology of free markets and small government. With his advocacy of protectionism and plans for the government to prevent companies from opening factories overseas, he is not an economic conservative.
Will Republican economic conservatives, who dominate Congress, go along with the Republican president, or will they oppose him?
There are other fractures within conservatism itself that have to be worked out. How and to what extent, if any, should America “lead the world.” Should we use our military power to quell “threats to Democracy”? The neo-conservatives say “yes.” Nationalist conservatives say “no.” Trump opposes interventionism and the use of military force apart from our national interests. Will other Republicans come around to that view? And then there is the threat of ISIS and Islamic terrorism more generally. Trump does say that he will get tough on that front. How do you do that without interventionism?
And there are the culture issues. Social conservatives oppose the sexual revolution, don’t approve of gay marriage, reject transgender concessions, etc. Trump is OK with all of those. Those are important issues for a major faction of Republicans, especially the Christians who delivered big for Trump. Probably they will continue to support Trump as long as he comes through on his pro-life promises.
At any rate, Republicans will have to sort all of this out.
Democrats, I predict, will become more progressive. They will put away their loyalty to Hillary Clinton and to Clinton-style courting of corporate interests. They will recognize that a big part of Trump’s appeal was to the working class that used to be the Democratic base but that lately have been ignored.
The Bernie Sanders phenomena got the old leftwing juices flowing again, and I predict the ascendancy of the Sanders, Elizabeth Warren wing of the party.
But their rank and file members now are affluent high-tech workers, guilt-ridden financiers, and aggrieved identity groups. How can they win back the proletariat? Does that mean they need to ally themselves, on certain issues, with Donald Trump? Perhaps co-operate with him, against the economic conservatives in the Republican party? Maybe.
Do you see any other issues that both parties are going to have to contend with, in this post-Trump era?
